Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 8.975925 10.319589 11.767715 13.441007 15.317599 17.353610 19.726015
2025-11-30 7.064591 8.894005 11.020079 13.659257 16.832090 20.507517 25.070036
2025-12-07 6.164048 8.225281 10.738147 14.000018 18.092072 23.023290 29.379220
2025-12-14 5.249805 7.397176 10.133860 13.834693 18.659769 24.683287 32.709666
2025-12-21 4.385938 6.497639 9.300288 13.233108 18.540149 25.375351 34.752485
2025-12-28 4.019160 6.214976 9.231399 13.597820 19.661128 27.673951 38.931771
2026-01-04 3.674791 5.916535 9.096978 13.835512 20.591143 29.731050 42.852800
2026-01-11 3.283371 5.502221 8.751854 13.731840 21.015268 31.094454 45.866630
2026-01-18 2.938989 5.119281 8.411422 13.593771 21.358196 32.333263 48.731287
2026-01-25 2.674847 4.832389 8.184875 13.595759 21.885366 33.833183 52.001431
2026-02-01 2.467186 4.614112 8.041431 13.703966 22.560727 35.557667 55.643370
2026-02-08 2.241870 4.342215 7.787648 13.614806 22.918625 36.816372 58.638298
2026-02-15 2.024146 4.065566 7.509639 13.475661 23.202750 37.996217 61.599137
2026-02-22 1.872048 3.890040 7.384623 13.573526 23.859778 39.762318 65.506148
2026-03-01 1.783766 3.821396 7.433215 13.956530 24.983966 42.279595 70.636597
2026-03-08 1.614715 3.582080 7.163121 13.776012 25.170000 43.330702 73.530504
2026-03-15 1.404349 3.238598 6.676672 13.182039 24.626069 43.187807 74.529634
2026-03-22 1.345092 3.192174 6.729757 13.543554 25.712429 45.700521 79.824007
2026-03-29 1.274277 3.114239 6.716499 13.781139 26.591555 47.901927 84.685653
2026-04-05 1.168581 2.950754 6.525791 13.677567 26.863912 49.104907 87.956889
2026-04-12 1.068940 2.789293 6.325337 13.540064 27.063526 50.185596 91.053380
2026-04-19 0.992812 2.672090 6.203350 13.542012 27.509560 51.692747 94.899859
2026-04-26 0.933319 2.586695 6.139048 13.649859 28.150222 53.550569 99.388196